Climate Change and Disappearing Islands: Tuvalu, Sea-Level Rise and the Future of Statehood
The Problem
One of the most devastating consequences of climate change is sea level rise. A science lesson will help to understand this. As global mean temperatures increase because of human-induced climate change, glaciers and ice sheets (huge bodies of ice on land in places like Greenland and Antarctica) and ice found on mountains are melting very quickly. The melted water flows into the oceans. Over time, the overall volume of water increases, and causes the sea level to rise. Again, because of rising temperatures, the oceans are absorbing more of the heat that is trapped in the atmosphere which causes the temperature of water in the oceans to increase. When water heats up, it expands and takes up more space. In essence, the oceans expand and contribute further to rising sea levels. If you live in a landlocked country or one that sits well above sea level, this slow onset event might seem distant or abstract. Sea level rise does not happen suddenly, or over a couple of weeks or months. But for others (like the Netherlands or Bangladesh), it presents a serious threat to coastlines, homes, and livelihoods.
And for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the stakes are even higher. SIDS are a particular grouping of developing countries which are small, low-lying islands countries or small states that face special social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities. Put together, SIDS make up a total population of about 65 million (less than 1% of the global population). SIDS are located in the Caribbean, the Pacific, the Atlantic, the Indian Ocean as well as the South China Sea. SIDS have a small land mass compared to the water that surrounds them. In fact, The exclusive economic zone (the part of the sea that states are allowed to exploit for economic benefits) is on average 28 times the land mass for SIDS. This means that for many of these states, the natural resources they have access comes from the ocean. But several factors (for example, small population size, distance from international markets, delicate land and marine ecosystems) increase the likelihood that SIDS will be significantly impacted by biodiversity loss and climate change.
For SIDS, climate change has disastrous consequences. Climate change has turned the normal tropical cyclone season into deadly and catastrophic events for SIDS. Tropical storms, cyclones and hurricanes form part of the regular weather cycle in tropical regions. Climate change does not increase the number of hurricanes and other tropical storms. But rising temperatures have made oceans warmer than they used to be. Warmer oceans can make the hurricanes, typhoons and cylones that form more intense with higher wind speeds, heavier rainfall and greater risk of coastal flooding.
Let’s return to sea level rise. SIDS in the Pacific region are facing the terrifying possibility of total or partial submersion. NASA data suggests that in the next 30 years SIDS in the Pacific will experience sea level rise of at least 6 inches. Frighteningly, this amount of sea-level rise is locked in regardless of whether temperatures fall in the coming years. SIDS in the Pacific will therefore have to contend with more frequent coastal flooding and saltwater intrusions on land. What this means is that by the year 2050, SIDS in the Pacific face the very real possibility of having some or all of their land mass submerged.
One such island state is Tuvalu. Tuvalu is a group of nine small low-lying islands and atolls in the Pacific. No point in Tuvalu is higher than 4.5 meters above sea level. The population is about eleven thousand. Tuvalu’s cultural values are deeply connected to communal living, tradition and resilience. Faith is part of the Tuvaluan life. Many Tuvaluan believe in a spiritual connection to land, sea and ancestors. But as climate change continues, Tuvalu faces the real threat of total submergence by the close of the century. In the short term, slow onset events such as high tide flooding (they call it “king tide”) and salination could cause Tuvalu to become uninhabitable by 2050. For Tuvalu, climate change impacts are not a distant probability. Sea level rise an existential threat. The culture, the values and the close connection to the physical land could very well be washed away by sea level rise. In essence, an entire country stands to lose something as fundamental to its identity and legal existence as its territory.
What Happens to a Country Without Land?
According to international law, specifically the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States, four elements define a state:
- A defined territory
- A permanent population
- A government
- The capacity to enter into relations with other states
So, what happens when a country like Tuvalu loses its territory to the sea? Can it still be considered a state under international law?
Interestingly, the International Law Commission (ILC) says yes.
In its report on sea-level rise, the ILC states that while territory is required to create a state, it is not required to maintain one. This legal clarification helps resolve ongoing debates around whether countries facing full submersion can continue to exist as sovereign states, even if they operate outside their original physical location (what scholars call ex situ statehood).
But this raises further questions. Where would Tuvalu’s people go? How would they preserve their political, social, and cultural life? How do you govern a population that has been displaced from its homeland?
According to the ILC, even with complete submersion, a state may retain:
- Sovereignty over its submerged territory
- Government operations (most likely in ex situ form)
- Citizenship and nationality rights
- Maritime zones, and the associated rights and resources
Tuvalu’s Bold Response
Tuvalu has not waited for international law to catch up. It has already taken bold, pragmatic steps.
One major move was entering into the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union Treaty, a first-of-its-kind agreement. Article 3 of the treaty offers a special human mobility pathway for Tuvaluans, ensuring they are treated with dignity and protected if sea-level rise forces them to relocate. It is reported that nearly one half of Tuvalu’s population has already begun the application process required to access the special mobility pathway. In addition to the mobility pathway, the Agreement provides for continuity of statehood for Tuvalu regardless of loss of territory. The parties also agree to preserve Tuvalu’s culture Australia must provide assistance upon Tuvalu’s request in the event of major disasters, public health emergencies or military threats. In return, Tuvalu is required to consult and mutually agree with Australia before undertaking new defence or security arrangements with third parties.
This treaty is significant—not only as a legal instrument but also as an acknowledgment of the disproportionate burden faced by some of the world’s most vulnerable (and least responsible) communities in the climate crisis.
In the meantime, there have been climate adaptation and resilience interventions. For example, natives are planting mangroves along parts of Tuvalu’s shoreline to lessen the impact of king tides. Tuvalu has also received funding for the construction of sea walls, raised platforms and modelling technology. Even more remarkably, Tuvalu is looking to the future in a very unconventional way: it is building a digital copy of itself in the metaverse. The goal is to become the world’s first digital nation.
What does it mean for a country to exist entirely online? What does the metaverse do? Can culture, governance, and national identity be sustained in a virtual space?
We explore these questions, and the future of digital statehood, in Part 2 – Rethinking Sovereignty for Deterritorialise Nations: The Metaverse as a Cyber Jurisdiction – of this 3-part series.
Authors:
Dr. Enam K. Antonio, Lecturer, GIMPA Law School
Desmond Israel, Esq. Lecturer, GIMPA Law School & Partner (Cyberlaw & Technology Practice) AGNOS Legal Company